Monthly Archives: August 2012

August 20, 2012

Narrative Believability Trumps Probability in Decision Making

We are not statisticians by nature, but storytellers.  Why don’t we make better use of that insight in our effort to predict and understand complex problems? British economist John Kay presented the following problem in a recent Financial Times column When Storytelling Leads to Unhappy Endings: Linda is single, outspoken and deeply engaged with social issues. …